GOOD MORNING, HERE’S WHAT’S HAPPENING: Donald Trump has now defended the Vivek Ramaswamy ad attacking Amy Acton in at least three different venues: on Truth Social, to reporters gathered near his "very, very special" helipad, and at last night’s rally in Iowa. "I say she’s fair game," he said to the reporters. We still haven’t seen any polls conducted wholly after The Rooster, an Ohio political Substack, broke the story of this ad on Monday night. They should start landing this weekend.
SPEAKING OF DISTURBING STORIES IN OHIO: Let’s not forget Max Miller, the Buckeye State GOP congressman who faced allegations earlier this year of committing acts of violence against his ex-wife (and other women) and may have inflicted injury upon his two-year-old daughter. He’s still running for reelection against Democrat and iron worker Brian Poindexter. The Akron Beacon-Journal reported recently that Poindexter has raised $3 million to Miller’s $1.7 million. Cook rates the race a "toss-up" as does Sabato’s Crystal Ball.
DID WE READ THIS RIGHT?: Here’s a headline that we didn’t expect to see: The Justice Department is actually investigating a member of the MAGA mishpocheh (look it up). The Wall Street Journal is reporting that the DOJ is probing Corey Lewandowski over profits he is alleged to have made, some from foreign governments, while acting as Kristi Noem’s … eh … what’s the word? … let’s say "special government employee." The paper calls it "the first publicly known instance of President Trump’s second-term Justice Department scrutinizing someone close to the president." Hats off to Joseph Cuffari, the DHS inspector general whose referral launched the probe. Trump appointed Cuffari during his first term and apparently forgot to fire him in the great IG purge during the first weekend of his second term.
A BREAK FROM POLITICS (SORT OF): The World Series starts tonight, as the Tampa Bay Rays head north to face the Milwaukee Brewers for the first of two games in Cream City. It’s a red state versus a (usually) blue state; Sun Belt versus Rust Belt. In the 2024 presidential race, Kamala Harris carried Milwaukee County with 68 percent of the vote, while Trump just barely won Tampa’s Hillsborough County with 50.9 percent (map here). In case you were wondering.
|
This race could produce the biggest upset of the year |
Democratic gubernatorial candidate David Jolly Joe Raedle/Getty
|
For months, Democrats have had their hopes up about Florida’s gubernatorial race. In a sign that Republicans are eager to turn out their base and boost voting numbers, President Donald Trump plans to hold a rally on Friday with Republican candidate Byron Donalds in Fort Myers. Earlier this week, the Democratic Governors Association (DGA) announced that it would funnel $1 million into Democratic candidate David Jolly, whom polls put within striking distance of his Republican opponent. Florida hasn’t elected a Democratic governor in 28 years. Can Jolly overcome major fundraising and voter disadvantages to break that streak? And does it help that he himself used to be a Republican House member, before leaving the party in 2018?
When I asked Fernand Amandi, the managing partner of public opinion firm Bendixen & Amandi, about the key issues in the race, his reply was simple: "There’s only one issue, and it is that Florida over the last 10 years has become totally unaffordable for Floridians." Rising grocery costs and high gas prices due to the war with Iran have added to a long-brewing home insurance affordability crisis in the state. "All of these factors combined have created a Category 5 economic hurricane in Florida," Amandi said. That’s likely why Jolly could beat Donalds, despite the plain numbers game that gives Republicans an advantage—there are 1.5 million more registered Republicans than Democrats in the state. Jolly used to be one of those Republicans, but he left the party in 2018 due to his opposition to Trump and his influence over the GOP. After identifying as an independent, Jolly officially joined the Democratic Party in April 2025, months before launching his campaign.
Donalds holds a two-point lead over Jolly in a recent poll from the University of North Florida’s Public Opinion Research Lab, which surveyed 1,471 likely voters. That’s well within the poll’s 2.8-point margin of error. The same poll also asked about the Senate race and found that GOP Senator Ashley Moody has a four-point lead over state Representative Angie Nixon, the Democratic nominee. Other polls show Donalds with a larger lead, including a poll from last week that found Donalds up by nine points. Though the candidates are different, both the gubernatorial race and the Senate race show the Democratic candidate closer than one might expect. Like Nixon, Jolly will need the support of no-party affiliation voters to overcome the state’s Democratic registration disadvantage.
Donalds has enjoyed a major lead in fundraising, which could help him overcome the unfavorable national environment for Republicans. "This whole year is sort of an interesting sort of experiment on how important money can be in overcoming deficiencies in campaigns," explained Kevin Wagner, a professor of political science at Florida Atlantic University.
More than $170 million has poured into the race as of Tuesday. Donalds has $33.3 million more in cash on hand, with much of the money coming from special interest groups. His top donors are private prison corporations, sports betting groups, and the AI industry, according to an analysis from OpenSecrets. His third-largest donor is the Seminole Tribe, which holds a monopoly on sports betting in the state and earlier this month filed a lawsuit against online sports betting platform DraftKings. Meanwhile, the Sports Betting Alliance, which includes companies like DraftKings, gave Donalds nearly $1.3 million. Donalds’s fourth-largest donor is private prison company GEO Group, which is headquartered in the state and runs several immigration detention facilities. He has also received funding from NextEra Energy, the parent company of energy providers planning to construct data centers in the state. Donalds told voters in August that "there ain’t no bans coming" on data centers.
"There’s a huge loophole because Florida allows candidates to open affiliated PACs," said Aubrey Jewett, a professor of political science at the University of Central Florida. These PACs can raise unlimited money, unlike campaigns, which can only receive $3,000 per donor. Billionaire hedge fund manager Ken Griffin, for example, gave $10 million to Donalds’s affiliated PAC in July. Though Jolly is behind in the cash game, he’s still been able to reach voters, especially with the help from the DGA. "He’s not competing on an even playing field in terms of money, but he’s gotten enough where he can at least get his message out," Jewett said.
Voter frustration is the vital element keeping Jolly in the game. "If Democrats were ever going to have a year where they could compete," Wagner said, "it would be a year that looks like this."
|
Luisita Lopez Torregrosa looks at James Talarico’s efforts to woo the Black vote … Kate Aronoff explains how Florida GOP Senator Ashley Moody is providing cover for manufacturers in a silicosis outbreak … Monica Potts digs into the right-to-repair movement.
|
The Trump administration is "again refusing" to cooperate with Minnesota law enforcement’s ongoing investigations into the killings of Renee Good and Alex Pretti, the Minnesota Star-Tribune reported on Thursday. In July, the feds finally handed over "hard drives, body camera footage, and statements from immigration enforcement agents about the killings," report Jeff Day and Sarah Nelson. But court filings last week, reviewed by the paper, indicate that state officials still don’t have "the cell phone of ICE agent Jonathan Ross, who shot Good" or "the firearms used [by Customs and Border Patrol officers] to shoot Pretti and a recording of a statement by one of the officers who shot him." Minnesota U.S. Attorney Daniel Rosen apparently told Hennepin County Attorney Mary Moriarty last month that "challenges with D.C." had halted all evidence sharing "indefinitely."
Former Michigan Senator Debbie Stabenow has penned an op-ed backing Callie Barr in the state’s 1st district. "For the first time in nearly two decades, a Democrat has a shot at winning the 1st District," wrote Stabenow in the Detroit Free Press on Thursday. There hasn’t been any public polling on this race since the primaries, and the idea that Barr could win is pretty striking, given that the Cook Political Report rates the district as "solidly Republican" (GOP +11), and Jack Bergman has held the seat since 2017. Stabenow, however, highlights Republican lawmakers’ disavowal of Bergman earlier this year after he endorsed someone in a state race that he’d allegedly promised to stay out of. Also on Thursday, The Detroit News reported that Bergman has for years been renting a D.C. home from one of his campaign donors, before the donor sold the home to Bergman’s daughter "in a favorable seller-financed deal this year." In her op-ed, Stabenow praised Barr’s "life of public service" as an advocate for veterans.
|
On Thursday, more than 100 environmental and other advocacy groups signed a letter opposing a recent permitting bill introduced by Democratic Senators Sheldon Whitehouse and Martin Heinrich and Republican Senators Shelley Moore Capito and Mike Lee. While many climate advocates have expressed at least theoretical support for so-called permitting reform if it could help speed up renewable energy development, these groups say the current bill’s attempt to streamline the permitting process will instead "eviscerate public lands protections, prevent the public’s ability to protect themselves from harmful projects, cede management decisions to fossil fuel polluters, restrict Tribal consultation and cultural resource protections, limit judicial review, and further enable foreign-owned mining companies to seize public lands and contaminate our precious streams and rivers." The Center for Biological Diversity issued a press release on Thursday with statements from three of the signatories. Said Olivia Juarez, the public land program director at GreenLatinos: "Here in Utah, where 73 percent of voters oppose fast-tracking oil, gas, and mining projects on public land, we say America’s worst ideas come from the desk of Sen. Mike Lee." (If you want to read further about Whitehouse’s position in all this mess, try this or this.)
At the Roosevelt Institute, Charlie Eaton, Albina Gibadullina, Adam Goldstein, and Marie-Lou Laprise pen a report on the "four interconnected roles" that private equity now plays in the economy: "corporate raider, Main Street invader, monopoly builder, and shadow owner." Write the authors: "Private equity is often misperceived as a check against corporate concentration. This may flow from lingering memories of hostile takeovers by corporate raiders in the 1980s." In reality, they argue, "private equity has maintained a long-standing role in monopoly building through mergers and acquisitions (M&A) exit sales to other nonfinancial firms."
|
Good week: Hakeem Jeffries |
This week brought lots of evidence that Democrats could win the House by an unexpectedly large margin. That would, of course, make Jeffries House speaker, but the details here are important. The gold-standard New York Times poll just found the Democratic generic ballot lead to be 11 percentage points. Forecasters just shifted numerous districts that Trump carried comfortably (NC-11, WI-03, IA-02, PA-10) from "toss up" to "leans Democratic." And GOP super PACS are pulling money out of some of these Trumpy districts, suggesting surrender in them. The critical point here: The broadening battlefield suggests not just a Democratic takeover, but a potentially sizable Democratic majority, which would be easier for Jeffries to manage.
|
The vice president foolishly rushed to defend that loathsome ad from Ohio GOP gubernatorial candidate Vivek Ramaswamy, which smeared Democrat Amy Acton by using comments from her estranged mother, who stayed together with the stepfather who sexually abused her as a child. Many Republicans have now run from the ad. Vance’s bizarre decision to double down may prove to be a more consequential blunder than he realizes. If this saga contributes to a Democratic victory in the Ohio gubernatorial and Senate races—in Vance’s home state—it will raise further questions about his political judgment and staying power heading into 2028.
By Greg Sargent
|
POLITICAL TRIVIA QUESTION OF THE DAY
|
|
|
|
If both Amy Acton and Sherrod Brown win, it will be the first time that Ohio has simultaneously elected a Democratic governor and senator since what year? |
Yesterday’s question and answer:
Q: With Rob Sand apparently poised to win Iowa’s gubernatorial race: When did the Hawkeye State last elect a Democratic governor?
A: Tom Vilsack was last elected in 2002.
|
|
|
GET IN TOUCH WITH US
Democratic Hill staffers and political operatives, progressive activists and think tankers and insiders—have a news tip for us, or a thought about something you think we should cover? Let us know by writing to thebluebook@tnr.com. Our staff is small, but we'll do our best!
|
|
|
|
|
|
Were you forwarded this email? This is The TNR Blue Book—the only newsletter that takes you inside what’s happening with the Democrats on Capitol Hill and beyond, and in the world of progressive debate and ideas. Sign up for free.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
.jpg)
